University of Victoria, Canada
with
Dr. Trefor Bazett
The webinar has concluded, but you can still watch the full recording. Register for free to get access and discover how Bayesian reasoning helps us evaluate uncertainty, update beliefs, and make better predictions.
Bayesian Reasoning:
How to Predict in an Uncertain World?
How to Predict in an Uncertain World?
— PAST WEBINAR
Recorded Webinar
September 10, 2026
WHAT WE’LL EXPLORE
How do we predict under uncertainty?
3
See through practical examples how Bayesian thinking can help us evaluate evidence, challenge intuition, and make more disciplined predictions.
Reason Better Under Uncertainty
Understand the central idea behind Bayes’ theorem: how new evidence should change our assessment of what is likely to happen
Update Your Predictions
2
Why uncertainty does not mean we cannot make meaningful predictions — and how probabilities allow us to express what we actually know.
Think in Probabilities
1
Dr. Trefor Bazett
Webinar Expose
This webinar offers an accessible introduction to Bayesian reasoning and its role in making predictions under uncertainty.
We will explore how Bayesian reasoning provides a structured framework for forming predictions, evaluating uncertainty, and updating our beliefs as new information becomes available.
The session will begin with the core concepts of prior and posterior beliefs and conditional probability, before moving on to Bayes’ theorem and its implications for reasoning and prediction.
Throughout the webinar, these ideas will be illustrated through clear and practical examples, showing how Bayesian reasoning can help us interpret evidence, refine our expectations, and develop a more disciplined understanding of an uncertain world.
We will explore how Bayesian reasoning provides a structured framework for forming predictions, evaluating uncertainty, and updating our beliefs as new information becomes available.
The session will begin with the core concepts of prior and posterior beliefs and conditional probability, before moving on to Bayes’ theorem and its implications for reasoning and prediction.
Throughout the webinar, these ideas will be illustrated through clear and practical examples, showing how Bayesian reasoning can help us interpret evidence, refine our expectations, and develop a more disciplined understanding of an uncertain world.
UVic Award for Teaching
Excellence
2025
Excellence
2025
PIMS Education Prize
2024
2024
PhD in Mathematics
University of Toronto
University of Toronto
Associate Teaching Professor
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
University of Victoria, Canada
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
University of Victoria, Canada
Dr. Trefor Bazett is a mathematician and educator specializing in making advanced mathematical ideas accessible and intuitive.
He is the author of an educational series on Bayes’ theorem and Bayesian inference published by Springer Nature and has created more than 500 educational mathematics videos for an international audience.
He is the author of an educational series on Bayes’ theorem and Bayesian inference published by Springer Nature and has created more than 500 educational mathematics videos for an international audience.
About the Speaker
Dr. Trefor Bazett
who this webinar is for
You Don’t Need to Be a Mathematician
LEARNING & STUDY
Understand how probabilistic
thinking works.
Understand how probabilistic
thinking works.
CURIOUS MINDS
Make better decisions when
information is incomplete.
Make better decisions when
information is incomplete.
RESEARCH & ANALYSIS
Policy, security and research.
Policy, security and research.
WORK WITH DECISIONS
Information, forecasts and decision-making.
Information, forecasts and decision-making.
NO Сomplicated Formulas
NO Special Background
NO Programming
Bayesian thinking doesn’t start with formulas.
It starts with a simple question: how should you change your mind when new information becomes available?
This webinar is for anyone who wants to reason more clearly under uncertainty - even if mathematics and statistics have never been your strong suit.
It starts with a simple question: how should you change your mind when new information becomes available?
This webinar is for anyone who wants to reason more clearly under uncertainty - even if mathematics and statistics have never been your strong suit.
If you can ask questions,
you’re ready for this webinar
you’re ready for this webinar
Get Free Access to the Webinar
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